Resit Kemal As / Editor-in-Chief, World Of Global
For decades, Israel’s security doctrine was structured around a single central threat: Iran. Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, its network of regional proxies, and its ideological stance toward Israel positioned it as an existential risk in the eyes of Israeli decision-makers. Military planning, diplomatic initiatives, and regional alliances were largely shaped by this perception.
Recent analyses published in Israeli media outlets close to political and security circles, however, suggest that this long-standing paradigm is undergoing reassessment. While Iran remains a significant concern, Israel’s strategic focus is increasingly shifting toward Türkiye—specifically under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
This shift should not be interpreted as a short-term reaction, but rather as the result of a deeper structural transformation in the Middle East. Power in the region is no longer defined solely by military superiority. Diplomatic reach, economic leverage, influence over public opinion, and the ability to operate simultaneously across multiple domains have become equally decisive.
Türkiye has emerged as a prominent actor in this evolving landscape. Advances in its defense industry, cross-border military operations, active diplomatic engagement in conflict zones, and extensive humanitarian initiatives have expanded Ankara’s regional footprint. Developments in Syria, Libya, the South Caucasus, and the Eastern Mediterranean reflect a long-term strategic vision rather than isolated tactical moves.
From Israel’s perspective, Türkiye represents a fundamentally different type of challenge. Iran is a well-known and relatively predictable adversary, operating within established patterns of confrontation. Türkiye, by contrast, combines military capability with diplomatic legitimacy, economic integration, and regional partnerships, making its actions more complex and less easily categorized within traditional threat frameworks.
Türkiye’s growing influence in northern Syria is viewed not only through a security lens but also as an indicator of Ankara’s capacity to shape the country’s future political order. In the Eastern Mediterranean, competition over energy resources and maritime jurisdiction further deepens the strategic dimension of Israeli-Turkish relations.
The Palestinian issue remains a central factor in shaping perceptions. Türkiye’s active diplomacy and high-profile rhetoric on Gaza and Palestine resonate strongly in international public opinion, creating an additional layer of strategic pressure that Israel closely monitors.
The notion, increasingly voiced in Israeli strategic discourse, that the country’s focus is shifting from Iran to Türkiye reflects a broader realization: the regional order can no longer be maintained through unilateral military dominance alone. Türkiye is not an isolated actor but one deeply embedded in global systems and capable of engaging multiple power centers simultaneously.
In this context, Türkiye represents not an immediate military threat, but a long-term strategic challenge defined by influence, legitimacy, and multidimensional power projection. The critical question for Israel is whether its existing security paradigm can adapt to this new reality—or whether a fundamentally revised strategic framework is now required.