In the UK, where around 52 percent of voters opted to leave the European Union (EU) in the 2016 referendum, surveys now show that support for Brexit has fallen to as low as 29 percent.
Initially voiced by marginal groups in the 1990s, the idea of leaving the EU (Brexit) began to gain mainstream political support following the 2008 global financial crisis.
In 2012, Peter Wilding, a former chairman of the think tank British Influence, introduced the term “Brexit,” derived from the words “Britain” and “exit,” into political discourse.
In his article, Wilding, the originator of a term that would shape the UK’s last decade, argued that Brexit would become inevitable unless the UK assumed a leadership role within the EU, stressing the need to break free from EU bureaucracy and “take back control.”
At the time, far-right politician Nigel Farage, then leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), also embraced the “take back control” slogan, building his political platform around it while targeting voters of the ruling Conservative Party.
As Farage’s popularity grew, then Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, seeking to prevent losing voters to UKIP, promised during the 7 May 2015 general election campaign to hold a referendum on EU membership in 2017.
After the Conservatives won the election, 23 June 2016 was set as the date for the Brexit referendum.
Three early elections, three prime ministers for Brexit
During the campaign, most parties largely advocated remaining in the EU. Among national parties, UKIP was firmly in favor of Brexit, while the Conservative Party did not take an official institutional stance.
Nevertheless, prominent party figures such as then Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson ran strong campaigns advocating leaving the EU.
In the referendum, the British public voted 52 percent in favor of Brexit, but the process of leaving the EU took four years.
During the four-year period that began with David Cameron’s resignation following his election victory and the Brexit referendum, the UK held three early general elections and changed prime ministers three times.
The third prime minister of the Brexit process, Boris Johnson, secured a parliamentary majority in the December 2019 early election and formally took the UK out of the EU on the final day of 2019.
The Brexit agreement, approved by the House of Commons, the House of Lords, and the Queen, entered into force on 31 January 2020, officially marking the UK’s departure from the EU.
Support for remaining in the EU rises to 52 percent
Six years on, Brexit is now widely regarded by the British public as a turning point. Many believe that conditions have worsened since Brexit across areas ranging from the economy and healthcare to public services and migration.
Rising living costs are often attributed to the UK’s exit from the Customs Union, while longer hospital waiting times are linked to staff shortages following the departure of European healthcare workers after Brexit.
As a result, public support for rejoining the EU has increased, while backing for Brexit has declined sharply.
According to a survey conducted by The Times, only 29 percent of respondents said they would vote to leave the EU if a Brexit referendum were held today.
While 48 percent voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, The Times poll shows this figure has risen to 52 percent.
Of the 2,113 respondents, 49 percent said a rejoin referendum should be held within the next five years, while 37 percent opposed holding another referendum.
A poll commissioned by the Financial Times found that 46 percent support Brexit, compared with 48 percent who oppose it.
Meanwhile, a survey by The Telegraph, known for its proximity to the Conservative Party, showed 49 percent support for Brexit and 51 percent opposition.
UK returns to Erasmus
In July 2024, the Labour Party came to power on its own, ending 14 years of Conservative rule. Prime Minister Keir Starmer ruled out rejoining the EU but signaled a “reset” in relations with Brussels.
As part of efforts to rebuild ties, the Labour government has begun negotiations to rejoin several agreements that were terminated after Brexit.
The first of these is Erasmus+, the EU’s flagship program enabling young people to study, intern, and conduct research abroad. The EU and the UK reached an agreement, and the UK is set to rejoin the program in 2027.
While talks continue on energy market integration and trade, the two sides have failed to reach an agreement on defense cooperation.
The UK, which sought to join the EU’s defense fund, was unable to agree with the EU on financial contributions and conditions in 2025, with negotiations expected to resume in 2026.
Discussions regarding the Customs Union are also ongoing.